Here it is:
What the slide shows is simple: The Republican Party of 2010-2014 (and likely before that) was composed primarily of white voters (90%), with a slight tilt in that group to non-college educated whites.
Trump’s election in 2016 radically changed that mix. Non-college educated whites soared to almost 6 in 10 Republicans voters while white voters with a college degree or more dipped to just 1 in 3 GOP voters. And that trend continued — and accelerated — in the 2018 midterms with the less than 3 in 10 Republicans being whites with college degrees or higher.
That’s remarkable. Equally stunning is this data point from McInturff: In 2010, Republican candidates won white college-educated voters by 19 points. In 2018? The party lost that group by 8 points. That’s a HUGE 27-point shift among what had long been considered a pillar of the Republican base — in just eight years’ time!
The problem for Republicans is that their margins among non-college whites haven’t increased in anything close to the same way the party’s share of college educated whites has dropped. In 2010, Republicans won non-college educated white by 30 points. In 2018, the GOP won that same group by 24.
And, it goes without saying that Republicans’ inability to grow their non-white ranks in any meaningful way also lends to its demographic issues.
The Point: The ways in which Donald Trump’s election transformed the Republican Party are many and varied. But this just might be one of the most important ones.