Recent runs of the European model, operated by the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting, have been trending a stronger storm over the past 48 hours.
The model has constantly brought the center of the storm to the eastern coast of Florida, somewhere between Jacksonville and West Palm Beach.
Right now, Dorian is approaching several Caribbean islands.
But it could impact more than just the Caribbean: By the end of the week, what’s left of Dorian is expected to move toward the Bahamas and southeastern parts of the mainland US.
A word of warning, though: “It is still way too early to forecast impacts,” Hennen said about Florida.